Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Musings on predicting the future : The past is not prologue.

One can predict the result of a idea that is adopted & that is applied consistently. The ideas that you choose to follow determine your actions. But YOU determine what ideas you will hold. And you bear sole responsibility for those beliefs. Not history. Not precedent. If this were not true we would never have left the cave or had a renaissance. Free will is not loaded dice,it isn't even dice. One can make judgements about a individual today based on the available information; & you can only act on the available data,but you must not fall into a deterministic trap of forgetting that people are not machines,or electrons,or Rube-Goldberg contraptions.
They have free will. If they continue on a course it is because they choose to actively do so,if they stop or change course it is also because they choose to do so.
A person's beliefs & actions can not be conditioned by past actions or by mistaken beliefs that they held in the past. A person cannot bind their mind with their beliefs of today. A Individual himself cannot know ahead of time what he will choose to do or believe in the future,precisely because he has free will. How then can another--who lacks the capacity to know your thoughts--predict your actions,much less the actions of millions. It is for this reason that I believe that there can be no grand overarching theory of history;in the sense of inevitable cycles or theories predicting what people will do (unless they are conditional theories e.g. ”If x does y then z will take place,x is doing y,therefore unless.x stops doing y ,z will take place”) This does not preclude disaster,since people can choose to pursue a disastrous course,but it precludes fatalism or over-determinism. The day may come when the only thing that is left of America that is worth saving is t hose few individuals who still possess its spirit. That day has not come & may never come. The past is not prologue.

P.S.:

If you are asking ”what brought this on” the answer is nothing in particular it's simply something that occurred to me.

Posted via email from fightingstatism

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